The simulation itself always models every driver who has scored this season — this just controls who's reported on below.
DNFs in the remaining events, for tracked drivers
Set how many of the remaining events each tracked driver fails to finish. Which specific event(s) each DNF lands on is randomized fresh in every simulated season. Every other driver on the grid uses their own mechanical-DNF rate from this season so far.
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Championship win probability
Projected final championship position
Each ridge is one tracked driver's share of simulated seasons landing at each final position, tallest at their most likely finish. Position is rank in the full simulated standings — every driver who's scored this season, not just the tracked set — so finishing behind an untracked driver is possible. Ordered by median finish, best on top.
Projected final points
Each ridge is one tracked driver's spread of possible final point totals. Overlap between two ridges is a rough read on how contested that gap still is — heavy overlap means the sim sees it as a toss-up. Ordered by median final points, highest on top.